Paradoxes of an altered market: you pay more for legal dollars than for the parallel

The 2.5% inflation in November made Martin Guzmán happy , the Minister of Economy who is negotiating with the IMF and feels pressure from the multilateral body to adjust the deposit interest rate, the one that is paid to the investor, at a level similar to inflation. He knows that sustaining this level is almost impossible, but for at least one month the rates were above inflation since a fixed term accrues almost 3% per month .

The news was known before the close of the markets and the first to adjust were indexed bonds. The Boncer that expires next year fell 0.14%. On the other hand, UVA deposits continue to rise at an interesting rate due to the tranquility of the dollar. In the first week of the month, they increased almost 2% to just over $ 177 billion, while fixed terms remained stagnant.

Dollar deposits are slowly sapping their trickle and slowly beginning to return to the banks . The great attraction they have is that the MEP dollar is better paid than the “blue”. And to carry out this operation, the money must come from a bank account because they must operate against the AL30 or GD30 bond.

For example, the MEP dollar, although it fell by $ 1.16 to $ 194.39, while the “blue” grew by $ 1 to $ 196.50, it is the dollar that is more convenient. The one who sells in the free segment receives the buyer price that is $ 193 against the $ 194.3 that they pay for the MEP. Every USD 1,000 the seller of “blue” loses $ 1,000 and cannot bank them.

Cash with liquidation also fell and in the GD30 market, the freest and where it operates the most volume, it fell by $ 2.63 to $ 203.64. It should be remembered that this dollar on November 12, the business day before STEP, came to be operated in the Senebi where business is done between the operator and the client and is not published on the screen at $ 220. In a month it fell 7.27%. The picture is completed by a “blue” dollar that traded at $ 206 and is now worth $ 10 less, that is, it lost 4.85% . The MEP was the least punished, on November 12 in the free market it was trading at $ 198.50 and lost $ 4 (-2.05%).

The gap between the MEP and the cash with settlement reached 8% and that was the cost of the cable dollar to put money in foreign accounts .

The winners, of course, were those who opted for placements in pesos, either in fixed terms or in bonds. The carry trade, the bet to win in pesos and then take the profits in dollars, was not greater due to the fear of a prompt resurrection of the dollar that still looms as an upcoming threat .

The country risk at that time was 1,748 basis points. Yesterday, due to the average rise of 0.10% in debt bonds in foreign markets, it closed at 1,694 points, 3 units less than the previous day.

Where the gains were lost was in the stock market. At that time, the daily rises were higher than the dollar. Yesterday the S&P Merval , the index of the leading stocks increased 0.28% with deals for $ 1,116 million, half of what it operated in the pre-PASO era. The most favored papers were those that fell the most the day before. Transportadora Gas del Norte added 4.45%, while Grupo Galicia increased 3.75%. There is risk aversion, but low prices and the retreating dollar are tempting to take positions.

The ADR’s – certificates of holding shares that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange – had a wheel where declines predominated following the trend of world markets that are waiting for today, from the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, to come a signal about the future of rates since the year-on-year wholesale inflation in November in that country exceeded 8%.

The collapse of stocks, especially technology stocks, on Wall Street, meant a blow to emerging countries because capital is fleeing from risk. In Brazil, for example, the stock market fell, the dollar rose and country risk rose.

Today the markets will continue with high volatility . December is a month that does not give truce.