The minimum spark of interest that had aroused in Argentina

The slow progress in the negotiations with the Monetary Fund together with the advance of the new variant Ómicron of coronavirus ended up extinguishing the minimum spark of interest that had aroused in Argentina among investors accustomed to dealing with “stressed economies ”. Since the Government announced at the beginning of the month the sending of a team from the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank to negotiate with the IMF, a mission that concluded last week, a dozen investment funds of these characteristics have landed in Buenos Aires to probe the spirit and potential of that agreement, which was presumed somewhat more advanced than was finally confirmed. This glimmer of attention on Argentine assets even had its correlate in the pulverized market prices, which registered an improvement since what was known on Wall Street some analysts called a “nod” or “wink” between the agency and Argentina.

But that incipient reaction, once again, was neutralized by new ambiguous signals regarding the political will to seal that agreement and a factor completely beyond the control of the Argentine authorities that – real or excuse – has increasing weight: the new peak. of coronavirus infections that are registered in central countries with the appearance of the new Omicron strain . The combination of both factors caused one of the main visits expected this week from Wall Street, a relevant fund whose presence generated certain expectations in the Government, to be canceled until further notice. The executives who had the ticket not only fear the disease but, above all, that in the face of rapid expansion, the Argentine government decides to close the borders again and remain stranded in the country for the Holidays.

Minister Guzmán does not understand why the prices of Argentine bonds and shares remain so low if the numbers of the economic recovery are so vigorous. “What more do they want?” He asks his advisers

Thus, this year the last string of contacts with investors that began when Guzmán traveled to New York, accompanied by the Chief of Cabinet, Juan Manzur , was closed.. The Tucumán official promotes relations both with the market and with foreign companies and corporations, something that does not occur in all areas or levels of Government. “Manzur understands that there has to be a round trip, then things can still go wrong but at least he welcomes us,” confided an executive of a multinational who had not had a chance to set foot in the Casa Rosada. That more dialogist climate seems to have infected the head of the Palacio de Hacienda. Frustrated because he does not understand why the prices of Argentine bonds and stocks remain so low if the numbers of the economic recovery are so vigorous – “what more do you want?” ask your advisers-Guzmán took the advice to become more accessible and has been making an effort for several weeks to revalue the relationship with creditors.

Thus, he received some small contingents of representatives of different funds, gathered by the investment bank Barclay’s, who held a face-to-face meeting with the Minister of Economy. Others, summoned by the Jeffries Group, had to settle for Finance officials.

Since the Government announced the sending of a team to negotiate with the IMF, a dozen investment funds landed in Buenos Aires to probe the spirit and potential of that agreement, which was presumed to be somewhat more advanced than was finally confirmed

All of them came with the same agenda: to know in situ and first-hand the instances of the negotiations with the IMF. Also try to elucidate the content of that understanding to know to what extent an agreement will imply the implementation of a plan that puts the unleashed variables that the Argentine economy presents today on track . Most of them, too, arrived equipped with the same list of interlocutors: civil servants, economists close to the Government and economists with a very critical view of the Government and, of course, the economic leaders of the opposition.

The point they tried to discern, something they have so far failed to achieve, is whether current Argentine asset prices represent a real profit opportunity . The answer is similar to the story of the good pipe: an agreement with the Fund that involves doing homework, that is, reducing the fiscal deficit, the exchange rate gap and accumulating reserves, would undoubtedly be an excellent opportunity. But the government’s feints and retreats and the difficulties on its domestic front to advance in that sense once again cast doubt on the notion that betting on Argentina is a good plan.